Russia
Sanna Marin Became One of Europe’s Most Recognisable Leaders. Finnish Voters Still Judged Her Government on Finland.
Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats have lost Finland’s parliamentary election tonight, although describing the result simply as a rejection of Marin would be misleading. The Social Democrats actually increased their share of the vote compared with…
Georgia’s Government Says It Wants Transparency Over Foreign Influence. Protesters Think It Is Borrowing Russia’s Method of Silencing Critics.
For several nights this week, thousands of Georgians gathered outside parliament in Tbilisi carrying Georgian and European Union flags. Police responded with tear gas, water cannon and arrests as protesters attempted to prevent parliament from…
Russia Does Not Need to Invade Moldova to Make Moldova Less Stable.
Moldova is not at war with Russia. Russian tanks are not advancing towards Chișinău, and Moldovan soldiers are not fighting Russian forces along the border. Yet the war in neighbouring Ukraine has increasingly made the…
The G7 Still Has Enormous Power. It No Longer Represents Most of the World.
Seven of the world’s wealthiest democracies met in the Bavarian Alps this week trying to demonstrate that the Western coalition assembled after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains capable of shaping international politics. The leaders of…
Russia Wanted Less NATO Near Its Borders. Finland Has Just Decided to Join It.
For years, one of Vladimir Putin’s most persistent complaints has been that NATO expanded too far eastwards and too close to Russia. Russian officials have repeatedly described the alliance’s enlargement as a threat to Russian…
Europe Thought Trading With Russia Would Make War Less Likely. Now Trade Is Part of the War.
For years, one of the strongest arguments for economic interdependence was that countries which trade extensively with one another become less likely to fight. War is expensive when your factories depend on somebody else’s inputs,…
Ukraine Is Asking NATO to Close Its Skies. Saying No May Be the Least Bad Option.
Eleven days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war already looks different from many expectations before it began. Russian forces have captured territory and continue attacking from several directions, but they have not produced the…
Russia Invaded Ukraine. The European Security Order We Have Been Discussing for Months Just Failed.
For almost three months, I have ended posts about Ukraine with some version of the same qualification: Russia has assembled the capability to invade, Western governments believe the risk is serious, but an invasion has…
Ukraine Gave Up Its Nuclear Weapons. What Did It Actually Receive in Return?
For months, the crisis around Ukraine has been discussed primarily through Russia’s intentions. Is Vladimir Putin preparing to invade, using military force to extract concessions, or deliberately maintaining enough ambiguity that nobody can distinguish between…
The Crisis Is in Europe. So Why Does Europe Still Look Like the Middleman?
Emmanuel Macron spent nearly six hours talking to Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. He then travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been moving through his own…
America Is Publicly Revealing What It Says Russia Is Planning. That May Be Part of the Strategy.
For more than two months, the crisis around Ukraine has revolved around a question nobody outside the Kremlin can answer with certainty: does Vladimir Putin actually intend to order a major Russian military operation? This…
Everyone Is Warning Russia Not to Invade Ukraine. What Happens If Putin Doesn’t Believe Them?
When I wrote about Russia and Ukraine in early December, the central problem was uncertainty. Russia had assembled substantial military forces near Ukraine, American and Ukrainian officials were warning that Moscow might be preparing for…
