Ukraine
Trump Says the Ukraine War Must End. The Hard Question Is Whether Ending a War Quickly Can Create the Conditions for the Next One.
The diplomatic structure surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war changed dramatically this week. On 12 February, Donald Trump spoke directly with Vladimir Putin and announced that negotiations to end the war should begin, before speaking separately with…
Modi Went to Moscow in July and Kyiv in August. That Is Not Neutrality. It Is India Trying to Maximise Diplomatic Freedom.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kyiv on 23 August, becoming the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine since diplomatic relations were established between the two countries in 1992. The symbolism was unusually strong…
Ukraine Has Invaded Russia. The Immediate Military Gain Matters Less Than What It Reveals About Risk, Surprise and Bargaining Power.
Ukraine’s surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk region has now become the largest incursion into Russian territory since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, and one of the most politically significant battlefield developments of the…
The G7 Is Lending Ukraine $50 Billion Against Profits From Frozen Russian Assets. That Sounds Technical. It Is Actually a Major Change in How Economic Power Is Used in War.
The G7 agreed this week to provide Ukraine with roughly $50 billion in new financing, using the future profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets as the economic foundation for repayment. Most of Russia’s immobilised…
Europe Just Gave Ukraine €50 Billion. Most of the Important Work Will Not Happen on the Battlefield.
The European Union finally agreed this week on a €50 billion financial package for Ukraine covering the period to 2027, overcoming the Hungarian veto that prevented agreement at December’s summit. All twenty-seven EU governments, including…
The EU Has Agreed to Open Membership Talks With Ukraine. That Does Not Mean Ukraine Is Joining Anytime Soon.
The European Union made one of its most consequential decisions since Russia invaded Ukraine this week. On Thursday, EU leaders agreed to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and granted candidate status to Georgia.
Ukraine’s Greatest Long-Term Vulnerability May Not Be Western Military Capacity. It May Be Western Political Patience.
Slovakia voted yesterday in an election whose consequences extend beyond a country of roughly 5.4 million people. Former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party finished first with about 23% of the vote, placing him in…
India Did Not Choose Between the West, Russia and the Global South at the G20. That May Be Exactly Why It Mattered.
The G20 summit concluded in New Delhi today with an outcome that looked surprisingly conventional considering how divided its members have become. The group produced a consensus declaration despite disagreements over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,…
NATO Says Ukraine Will Join. It Still Will Not Say When.
NATO leaders met in Vilnius this week only around 30 kilometres from the Belarusian border, with one question dominating much of the summit: what exactly does the alliance mean when it says Ukraine’s future belongs…
India and America Are Getting Closer. That Does Not Mean India Is Becoming an American Ally.
Narendra Modi will travel to Washington this week for a state visit hosted by President Joe Biden, including a state dinner and an address to a joint meeting of the US Congress. The ceremony will…
The Kakhovka Dam Has Been Destroyed. Modern Wars Are Increasingly Fought Through the Systems Civilians Depend On.
The Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine was destroyed early on Tuesday, releasing an enormous volume of water from the reservoir behind it into communities along the Dnipro River. Thousands of people have been evacuated from…
The G7 Does Not Want to Stop Trading With China. It Wants to Stop Being Unable to Function Without It.
The leaders of the G7 met in Hiroshima this weekend with Ukraine dominating much of the summit. Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Japan, the G7 reaffirmed military, financial and diplomatic support for Ukraine and announced further…
