Diplomacy
Europe Thought Trading With Russia Would Make War Less Likely. Now Trade Is Part of the War.
For years, one of the strongest arguments for economic interdependence was that countries which trade extensively with one another become less likely to fight. War is expensive when your factories depend on somebody else’s inputs,…
Ukraine Is Asking NATO to Close Its Skies. Saying No May Be the Least Bad Option.
Eleven days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war already looks different from many expectations before it began. Russian forces have captured territory and continue attacking from several directions, but they have not produced the…
Russia Invaded Ukraine. The European Security Order We Have Been Discussing for Months Just Failed.
For almost three months, I have ended posts about Ukraine with some version of the same qualification: Russia has assembled the capability to invade, Western governments believe the risk is serious, but an invasion has…
Ukraine Gave Up Its Nuclear Weapons. What Did It Actually Receive in Return?
For months, the crisis around Ukraine has been discussed primarily through Russia’s intentions. Is Vladimir Putin preparing to invade, using military force to extract concessions, or deliberately maintaining enough ambiguity that nobody can distinguish between…
The Crisis Is in Europe. So Why Does Europe Still Look Like the Middleman?
Emmanuel Macron spent nearly six hours talking to Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. He then travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been moving through his own…
America Is Publicly Revealing What It Says Russia Is Planning. That May Be Part of the Strategy.
For more than two months, the crisis around Ukraine has revolved around a question nobody outside the Kremlin can answer with certainty: does Vladimir Putin actually intend to order a major Russian military operation? This…
Everyone Is Warning Russia Not to Invade Ukraine. What Happens If Putin Doesn’t Believe Them?
When I wrote about Russia and Ukraine in early December, the central problem was uncertainty. Russia had assembled substantial military forces near Ukraine, American and Ukrainian officials were warning that Moscow might be preparing for…
Kazakhstan Looked Stable Until Last Week. Perhaps That Was the Problem.
Last Sunday, I wrote about a small protest in western Kazakhstan over the price of liquefied petroleum gas and argued that, if the demonstrations spread, the fuel price would probably turn out to be the…
Biden Invited the World’s Democracies to a Summit. First, Someone Had to Decide Who Counts.
The stated objectives were difficult to disagree with: defending democracy against authoritarianism, fighting corruption and promoting human rights. Biden argued that democracy is facing a global challenge and that democratic governments need to demonstrate that…
Russia Is Building Up Forces Near Ukraine. The Hardest Question Is Whether It Actually Intends to Use Them.
Ukraine says Russia may be preparing for an attack. American officials have increasingly expressed concern about the scale and nature of Russia’s military activity. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion and argues that…
One Word Nearly Broke COP26. That Word Explains the Entire Problem.
Almost 200 countries adopted the Glasgow Climate Pact, an agreement intended to accelerate climate action during this decade and keep alive the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Governments agreed to…
Everyone Agrees Climate Change Is a Problem. That Is the Easy Part.
COP26 has produced an extraordinary collection of promises already. More than 100 countries have backed a pledge to reduce global methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by the end of this decade. More than…
