Politics
Ukraine Is Asking NATO to Close Its Skies. Saying No May Be the Least Bad Option.
Eleven days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war already looks different from many expectations before it began. Russian forces have captured territory and continue attacking from several directions, but they have not produced the…
Russia Invaded Ukraine. The European Security Order We Have Been Discussing for Months Just Failed.
For almost three months, I have ended posts about Ukraine with some version of the same qualification: Russia has assembled the capability to invade, Western governments believe the risk is serious, but an invasion has…
Ukraine Gave Up Its Nuclear Weapons. What Did It Actually Receive in Return?
For months, the crisis around Ukraine has been discussed primarily through Russia’s intentions. Is Vladimir Putin preparing to invade, using military force to extract concessions, or deliberately maintaining enough ambiguity that nobody can distinguish between…
The Crisis Is in Europe. So Why Does Europe Still Look Like the Middleman?
Emmanuel Macron spent nearly six hours talking to Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. He then travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been moving through his own…
America Is Publicly Revealing What It Says Russia Is Planning. That May Be Part of the Strategy.
For more than two months, the crisis around Ukraine has revolved around a question nobody outside the Kremlin can answer with certainty: does Vladimir Putin actually intend to order a major Russian military operation? This…
Italy Spent a Week Trying to Find a New President. It Ended Up Asking the Old One to Stay.
Italy has spent almost an entire week trying to elect a new president. After eight rounds of voting, hundreds of blank ballots, failed compromises between political parties and an increasingly obvious inability to agree on…
Everyone Is Warning Russia Not to Invade Ukraine. What Happens If Putin Doesn’t Believe Them?
When I wrote about Russia and Ukraine in early December, the central problem was uncertainty. Russia had assembled substantial military forces near Ukraine, American and Ukrainian officials were warning that Moscow might be preparing for…
Boris Johnson Says He Thought It Was a Work Event. That Isn’t Really the Most Important Question.
On 20 May 2020, Britain was living under some of the most extraordinary restrictions on ordinary life imposed in peacetime. People could not freely meet friends and family. Weddings and funerals were heavily restricted. Millions…
Kazakhstan Looked Stable Until Last Week. Perhaps That Was the Problem.
Last Sunday, I wrote about a small protest in western Kazakhstan over the price of liquefied petroleum gas and argued that, if the demonstrations spread, the fuel price would probably turn out to be the…
One Week After Lula Took Office, Bolsonaro Supporters Stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and Presidential Palace.
Exactly one week ago, I wrote that Brazil’s institutions had successfully transferred power from Jair Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva without requiring Bolsonaro’s personal approval. Lula had won the election, the result had…
A Fuel Price Has Brought Kazakhs Into the Streets. It Probably Isn’t Only About Fuel.
Residents of Zhanaozen, a city in western Kazakhstan’s oil-producing region, have begun demonstrating after the price of liquefied petroleum gas rose sharply at the beginning of the year. LPG is widely used to fuel cars…
Libya Was Supposed to Elect a President This Week. It Couldn’t Agree on the Rules.
The date itself was symbolic. 24 December marked seventy years since Libya declared independence in 1951. After Muammar Gaddafi’s dictatorship, the uprising that overthrew him in 2011, a decade of political division and years of…
