Politics
Poland’s Nationalist Candidate Has Won the Presidency by Less Than Two Percentage Points. Europe Should Pay Attention to the 50–50 Country Emerging Across the Continent.
Poland has just completed one of the closest elections in its democratic history. Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), has defeated Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential…
Poland Votes Again Next Week. The Election Is Really About Whether Winning Government Is Enough When Your Opponents Still Control Institutions Capable of Stopping You.
Poland is heading towards an extraordinarily close presidential runoff on 1 June between Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, after neither candidate won a majority in the first round on 18…
Romania Just Chose a Pro-European President Over the Nationalist Right. But Winning 54–46 Is Not the Same Thing as Defeating the Politics That Produced the 46.
Romania has just completed one of the strangest and most consequential presidential elections in modern European politics. Nicușor Dan, the independent, pro-European mayor of Bucharest, has defeated nationalist George Simion in today’s presidential runoff after…
India Struck Pakistan. Pakistan Responded. Then Both Sides Stopped. The Most Important Question Is Whether This Was Successful Deterrence or Another Turn of an Escalation Cycle.
The crisis that began with the 22 April Pahalgam attack has now crossed into direct military confrontation between India and Pakistan and, at least for the moment, returned from it. In the early hours of…
India and Pakistan Are Preparing for the Possibility of Conflict. The Most Dangerous Part Is That Both Governments May Believe the Other Side Will Back Down First.
Nearly two weeks after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, the India-Pakistan crisis has not subsided. It has instead moved into the much more dangerous period between an attack and an expected response, when neither side knows…
Twenty-Six People Were Killed in Kashmir. India and Pakistan Are Escalating Again. The Hardest Question Is How a State Punishes Terrorism Without Giving Terrorists Control Over What States Do Next.
The killing of 26 people near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April has produced the most serious India-Pakistan crisis in years. Gunmen attacked tourists in the Baisaran meadow, turning a place associated with Kashmir’s…
Trump Wants Interest Rates Lower and Says Powell’s “Termination Cannot Come Fast Enough”. The Bigger Question Is Why Democracies Deliberately Give Unelected Central Bankers So Much Power.
Donald Trump’s confrontation with the Federal Reserve has intensified sharply. After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned this week that Trump’s tariffs could produce higher inflation and weaker growth, Trump accused him of being too…
Trump Paused Most of His “Liberation Day” Tariffs After Markets Revolted. China Was the Exception. This Is Starting to Look Less Like a Global Trade War and More Like an Attempt to Reorganise the World Economy Around China.
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade regime lasted in its original form for less than a week. On 9 April, only hours after the new country-specific tariffs came into effect, Trump announced a 90-day pause for…
Trump Finally Announced His “Liberation Day” Tariffs. Markets Lost Trillions. The Most Important Problem May Not Be the Tariffs Themselves, but Whether Anyone Knows How Long They Will Last.
Donald Trump’s promised “Liberation Day” arrived on 2 April, and the scale of the policy was considerably larger than markets expected. The administration announced a 10% baseline tariff on virtually all US imports, alongside substantially…
Trump Is About to Announce His Biggest Tariffs Yet. The Real Change Is That Free Trade Is No Longer the Default Assumption of American Politics.
Donald Trump is preparing what he has called “Liberation Day” on 2 April, when his administration is expected to announce a major new package of tariffs against American trading partners. The exact structure has not…
Germany Is Preparing to Borrow Hundreds of Billions for Defence and Infrastructure. The Bigger Change Is That Europe’s Largest Economy Has Decided Fiscal Restraint Can Become a Security Risk.
Germany has approved one of the largest changes to its fiscal architecture since reunification. On 21 March, the Bundesrat approved constitutional changes previously passed by the Bundestag that will loosen Germany’s famous debt brake for…
Trump Has Ordered Major Strikes on Yemen’s Houthis. The Problem Is That Destroying Missiles Is Easier Than Destroying the Incentive to Keep Firing Them.
Donald Trump ordered a major new American military campaign against Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on 15 March, after the Iran-aligned movement threatened to resume attacks on shipping connected to Israel in response to restrictions on…
