Armed Conflict
Ukraine Gave Up Its Nuclear Weapons. What Did It Actually Receive in Return?
For months, the crisis around Ukraine has been discussed primarily through Russia’s intentions. Is Vladimir Putin preparing to invade, using military force to extract concessions, or deliberately maintaining enough ambiguity that nobody can distinguish between…
The Crisis Is in Europe. So Why Does Europe Still Look Like the Middleman?
Emmanuel Macron spent nearly six hours talking to Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. He then travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been moving through his own…
America Is Publicly Revealing What It Says Russia Is Planning. That May Be Part of the Strategy.
For more than two months, the crisis around Ukraine has revolved around a question nobody outside the Kremlin can answer with certainty: does Vladimir Putin actually intend to order a major Russian military operation? This…
Everyone Is Warning Russia Not to Invade Ukraine. What Happens If Putin Doesn’t Believe Them?
When I wrote about Russia and Ukraine in early December, the central problem was uncertainty. Russia had assembled substantial military forces near Ukraine, American and Ukrainian officials were warning that Moscow might be preparing for…
Kazakhstan Looked Stable Until Last Week. Perhaps That Was the Problem.
Last Sunday, I wrote about a small protest in western Kazakhstan over the price of liquefied petroleum gas and argued that, if the demonstrations spread, the fuel price would probably turn out to be the…
One Week After Lula Took Office, Bolsonaro Supporters Stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and Presidential Palace.
Exactly one week ago, I wrote that Brazil’s institutions had successfully transferred power from Jair Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva without requiring Bolsonaro’s personal approval. Lula had won the election, the result had…
Libya Was Supposed to Elect a President This Week. It Couldn’t Agree on the Rules.
The date itself was symbolic. 24 December marked seventy years since Libya declared independence in 1951. After Muammar Gaddafi’s dictatorship, the uprising that overthrew him in 2011, a decade of political division and years of…
Russia Is Building Up Forces Near Ukraine. The Hardest Question Is Whether It Actually Intends to Use Them.
Ukraine says Russia may be preparing for an attack. American officials have increasingly expressed concern about the scale and nature of Russia’s military activity. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion and argues that…
Sudan’s Generals Have Taken Power. The Warning Signs Were Already There.
The timing is difficult to ignore. Last Sunday, I wrote that Sudan had removed Omar al-Bashir in 2019 without fully removing the political principle that men with guns ultimately decide who governs. On Monday morning,…
Sudan Removed a Dictator. It Never Really Removed the System That Kept Him in Power.
Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled Sudan for thirty years, was removed from power after months of mass demonstrations. Images from Khartoum seemed to capture one of those rare moments when political history visibly changes direction:…
America Says Alliances Are Back. France Just Recalled Its Ambassador.
After four years in which Donald Trump repeatedly criticised NATO allies, questioned multilateral institutions and approached international relationships in unusually transactional terms, Biden has tried to present himself as almost the opposite. America would consult…
The Last American Soldier Has Left Afghanistan. So What Did Twenty Years Achieve?
There was no peace treaty. There was no victory parade. The government America spent twenty years supporting had already disappeared, the Taliban controlled Kabul, and the final days of the evacuation had been marked by…
