Armed Conflict
Russia Does Not Need to Invade Moldova to Make Moldova Less Stable.
Moldova is not at war with Russia. Russian tanks are not advancing towards Chișinău, and Moldovan soldiers are not fighting Russian forces along the border. Yet the war in neighbouring Ukraine has increasingly made the…
Pakistan Thought It Had Contained the Taliban Insurgency. Peshawar Suggests the Problem Was Never Really Gone.
On Monday morning, hundreds of people gathered for prayers inside a mosque in Peshawar’s Police Lines compound. The location should have been among the more secure places in the city. Police Lines contains police headquarters…
One Week After Lula Took Office, Bolsonaro Supporters Stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and Presidential Palace.
Exactly one week ago, I wrote that Brazil’s institutions had successfully transferred power from Jair Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva without requiring Bolsonaro’s personal approval. Lula had won the election, the result had…
Pelosi Went to Taiwan. China Responded With Missiles. Was the Visit Worth It?
The Speaker of the US House of Representatives arrived in Taipei on Tuesday despite repeated warnings from Beijing that her visit would provoke a serious response. She met President Tsai Ing-wen, addressed Taiwanese officials and…
The G7 Still Has Enormous Power. It No Longer Represents Most of the World.
Seven of the world’s wealthiest democracies met in the Bavarian Alps this week trying to demonstrate that the Western coalition assembled after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains capable of shaping international politics. The leaders of…
Finland and Sweden Want to Join NATO. Turkey Has Just Reminded Everyone That Alliances Are Not Democracies.
Only a few months ago, that would have seemed almost unimaginable. Both countries had spent decades outside the alliance, maintaining military non-alignment while cooperating closely with Western institutions. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed that calculation…
Russia Wanted Less NATO Near Its Borders. Finland Has Just Decided to Join It.
For years, one of Vladimir Putin’s most persistent complaints has been that NATO expanded too far eastwards and too close to Russia. Russian officials have repeatedly described the alliance’s enlargement as a threat to Russian…
Imran Khan Has Been Removed. Pakistan’s Institutions May Have Just Passed a Harder Test.
Shortly after midnight, Pakistan’s National Assembly voted 174–0 in favour of the no-confidence motion against him after members of Khan’s party largely left the chamber. He becomes the first prime minister in Pakistan’s history to…
Myanmar’s Military Says It Will Not Negotiate. That May Be the Problem.
Myanmar’s military marked Armed Forces Day today with a parade in Naypyitaw and a message that was much more politically important than the ceremony itself. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the military coup…
Europe Thought Trading With Russia Would Make War Less Likely. Now Trade Is Part of the War.
For years, one of the strongest arguments for economic interdependence was that countries which trade extensively with one another become less likely to fight. War is expensive when your factories depend on somebody else’s inputs,…
Ukraine Is Asking NATO to Close Its Skies. Saying No May Be the Least Bad Option.
Eleven days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war already looks different from many expectations before it began. Russian forces have captured territory and continue attacking from several directions, but they have not produced the…
Russia Invaded Ukraine. The European Security Order We Have Been Discussing for Months Just Failed.
For almost three months, I have ended posts about Ukraine with some version of the same qualification: Russia has assembled the capability to invade, Western governments believe the risk is serious, but an invasion has…
