Armed Conflict
More Western Governments Are Moving Towards Recognising Palestine. Recognition Cannot Create a State by Itself, but Refusing Recognition Until a Perfect State Already Exists Creates Its Own Circular Problem.
The diplomatic argument over Palestinian statehood is changing rapidly. France has announced that it intends to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Britain has said it will recognise Palestine…
Thailand and Cambodia Are Fighting Over Their Border. It Is a Reminder That a Line Drawn More Than a Century Ago Can Still Become More Politically Valuable Than the Land Around It.
Thailand and Cambodia are now experiencing their worst military confrontation in more than a decade. Fighting erupted on 24 July along their disputed frontier and rapidly expanded across several locations, with artillery, rockets and ground…
NATO Has Agreed to Spend Far More on Defence. Trump Will Call It a Victory. Europe Should Ask Why It Took Doubting America to Make Europe Invest Seriously in Itself.
The NATO summit in The Hague has formalised one of the largest changes in Western defence policy since the end of the Cold War. Alliance members have committed themselves to a new target under which…
Trump Has Signed His “One Big Beautiful Bill”. America Is Cutting Taxes, Increasing Defence and Border Spending, and Cutting Parts of the Safety Net at the Same Time. The Arithmetic Eventually Has to Meet the Politics.
Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on 4 July, turning much of the economic programme on which he returned to the White House into legislation. The package makes major elements…
Israel and Iran Have Stopped Fighting. Trump Says the Nuclear Programme Was Destroyed. But a Ceasefire Is Not the Same Thing as Solving the Nuclear Problem.
The direct war between Israel and Iran has, for now, ended almost as suddenly as it began. After twelve days of Israeli strikes, Iranian missile attacks and the unprecedented American bombing of Fordow, Natanz and…
The United States Has Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Facilities. Trump Says the Programme Has Been “Obliterated”. The Harder Question Is Whether America Destroyed a Nuclear Threat or Changed Iran’s Incentive to Build a Bomb.
The United States has now entered the Israel-Iran war directly. Overnight, American forces struck Iran’s three principal nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, using B-2 stealth bombers and bunker-busting munitions against facilities that Israel…
Israel Has Attacked Iran’s Nuclear Programme. Iran Is Firing Ballistic Missiles Back. This Is What Happens When One Country Believes Waiting for Deterrence to Work Is More Dangerous Than Starting a War to Prevent It.
The shadow war between Israel and Iran has become an open interstate war. On 13 June, Israel launched a large-scale series of strikes across Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, air defences and senior military…
India Struck Pakistan. Pakistan Responded. Then Both Sides Stopped. The Most Important Question Is Whether This Was Successful Deterrence or Another Turn of an Escalation Cycle.
The crisis that began with the 22 April Pahalgam attack has now crossed into direct military confrontation between India and Pakistan and, at least for the moment, returned from it. In the early hours of…
India and Pakistan Are Preparing for the Possibility of Conflict. The Most Dangerous Part Is That Both Governments May Believe the Other Side Will Back Down First.
Nearly two weeks after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, the India-Pakistan crisis has not subsided. It has instead moved into the much more dangerous period between an attack and an expected response, when neither side knows…
Twenty-Six People Were Killed in Kashmir. India and Pakistan Are Escalating Again. The Hardest Question Is How a State Punishes Terrorism Without Giving Terrorists Control Over What States Do Next.
The killing of 26 people near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April has produced the most serious India-Pakistan crisis in years. Gunmen attacked tourists in the Baisaran meadow, turning a place associated with Kashmir’s…
Trump Paused Most of His “Liberation Day” Tariffs After Markets Revolted. China Was the Exception. This Is Starting to Look Less Like a Global Trade War and More Like an Attempt to Reorganise the World Economy Around China.
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade regime lasted in its original form for less than a week. On 9 April, only hours after the new country-specific tariffs came into effect, Trump announced a 90-day pause for…
Trump Is About to Announce His Biggest Tariffs Yet. The Real Change Is That Free Trade Is No Longer the Default Assumption of American Politics.
Donald Trump is preparing what he has called “Liberation Day” on 2 April, when his administration is expected to announce a major new package of tariffs against American trading partners. The exact structure has not…
